The match began lacking the initial gusto of a United-Liverpool tie, but Liverpool did keep a lot of possession without necessarily threatening the United bastion. United on the other hand were playing a passing game, one in which the mid-field would pass back to the defense as soon as they got the ball only to hear curses from their talented forward (Welbeck). The first half was a monotonous drone with very little happening in the final 3rd of the pitch. At the stroke of halftime however, Suarez had a great chance of opening Liverpool’s account, but he was slightly exhausted by all the “diving” that he had initially done and ended up scuffing his shot straight into the hands of De Gea, the one who was anointed as heir to Peter Schmeichel‘s legacy the moment he chose to be a goal-keeper.

The second half was much better. It seemed as if the United players had given the gaffer, the dreaded “hair-dryer” treatment and the result was there for everyone to see. Now the midfield wasn’t passing it back to the defense. Instead they were recklessly losing possession to the opposition which was a welcome change from the monotonous state of affairs from 1st half. Rio Ferdinand, United’s star defender for the day, meanwhile had decided to stick out a leg every time he saw a player run at him. One such tryst led to an unnecessary free-kick in a dangerous position when he fouled Adam. Sir Alex, visionary as he is, had already sensed the goal and had decided to bring on Rooney and Nani. Meanwhile after elaborate planning, Gerrard just decided to punt the ball at United’s well-formed wall without any conviction. Giggs probably had other ideas and wanted to make the match interesting. So he coolly broke away from the wall, allowing the ball to pass through into the open net. Gerrard celebrated in his customary style and Ferguson wasn’t very pleased. So he decided to punish Liverpool by bringing on Chicharito as well (Finally replacing Jones). Luis Enrique (half-brother of Enrique, the one with “Anna”) and the freshly brought-on Henderson meanwhile were causing United massive problems. Enrique with his trickery on the left side of the pitch and Henderson pumping forward from the central midfield at every occasion. However, United scored against the run of play when from one of the corners, Welbeck flicked it on for Chicharito to blast it into the net with his famed “head”, the scorer of many an important goals. This is where the game actually burst alive, with De Gea pulling off one stunning save after another. First from Kuyt, then from Henderson. The game suddenly became very open and with both teams having a go at each other the game was nicely poised for a frantic finish. Liverpool piled on the pressure creating 4 glorious chances, but United somehow held on for what was a satisfactory point for Sir Alex.

As a Man United faithful, a solitary point against the Scousers though good in the context of the league and the upcoming fixtures feels slightly more like a loss. Again, there is no point questioning Sir Alex’s tactics, but not playing Rooney as he was not in the “right frame of mind” after his devastating 3-match ban for the Euro group stages doesn’t really seem right. For a player, I think there is no better medium to come out and answer yourself and to your fans than on the playing field. But then, that is the reason Sir Alex attained knighthood although he is “just” a football coach and I can’t even manage to win as a virtual manager on FIFA Football Manager 2011

After all the drama this season has endured, it finally came down to this one match where a win could remove one team’s hands off the title only to replace it with another hand. Manchester United vs. Chelsea have always been tasty affairs, with animosity brewing from both ends in limitless quantity. Chelsea fans don’t like the fact that every pseudo-football-follower in the world follows Manchester United while ManU fans don’t like the way Chelsea’s fortunes changed after a rich oil-baron came calling and a mediocre club suddenly claimed its place among the very best in the world. So when the stakes are as high as this, it is just totally unfair to sit at home, sip beer and watch the match with a handful of friends when you can very well be a part of cacophony loud enough to light a city for a day (if only sound energy could be successfully converted into electrical energy at this scale!). And so I became part of history, with 3 of my friends. A girl (Saadiya, name changed for obscurity sake), who barely understands football but whose enthusiasm could put to shame a lot of people who swear by IPL and two other guys, one (Johny) who was there only to be anti-ManU, even though the closest he has come to following football is selecting a random team in UEFA Champions League fantasy football which shot to rank 1 after end of day 1 while I and my x-room-mate marvelled at his selections and the other (Kramnik) who suddenly thinks that football is a wonderful sport after attempting to play and failing miserably (I suppose!) the sport in a local ground with his colleagues from office. [Guys, please don’t kill me for this. It’s just the Corona and the Antiquity talking]

So we reached Man Utd cafe at 8:00 only to find a very small line stretching till the main road. Half of the line turned out to be people standing in random order and smoking away to glory, much to our comic relief. We managed to enter the cafe and were told bluntly that no tables were available and that we would have to stand and watch the match. On asking people who were resting their giant asses on comfortable couches, we got to know that people had arrived by 6 to get hold of these plum seats (I made a note to self to come early from next time). We took some time to figure out the semantics of the room and soon found a good spot from where we saw Arsenal playing like they normally do only to lose 1-3 to the highly rated Stoke City(placed 8th in the current league). That was a good omen. Something told me that this wouldn’t be the only win of the day. Ohh and I forgot to mention. I did Foursquare the freaking place once I had found my favourable spot, to keep up with my tradition of letting everyone know that I have a lot of money and that I visit posh,expensive places during the weekend so that people following my timeline can wallow in self-pity.

A huge cheer made us aware of the fact that the team line-ups had been announced. By then my loyal feelings for the club had overwhelmed me and I decided to make a small monetary contribution. I went straight to the merchandise section and picked up a red,shining training jacket. The price of the merchandise can be estimated from the fact that my quick tweet boasting of my new acquisition had a #ThereGoesMyCreditCardBill at the end . Now that my feelings had taken full control, chants of “United!! United!!” were suitably returned with great fervour. Soon it was time for the match as the players made their way through the tunnel. Kramnik was only taking my beer order when the loud noise turned into un-explainable din. I knew that a goal had already been scored and was secretly hoping that it was scored by a United player. The replays turned my hope into pure delirium as I saw Park Ji Sung (so often the un-sung hero of many of the famous United victories) thread a wonderful through ball to the “Little Pea” which the highly talented David Luiz could only deflect into an even promising position as the pea made no mistake, finishing with the calmness and candour that often eludes the crafty Berbatov in big matches. 1-0 to United with only 35 seconds on the clock! Whatte start!

By now, United were bossing the mid-field and they were doing it in some style with the Chelsea team absolutely refusing to turn up. Rooney smashed a wonderful shot off the outside of his right foot which was heading to the top corner only to be denied by the fateful hands of Cech who made what looked like (from the slow-motion replay) a top-drawer save. The pace of the match only increased and Chicharito, the scorer of the earlier goal. missed a golden chance to make it 2-0 as he was put-off somewhat by Luiz’s presence. Everyone had only made peace with the missed opportunity when Rooney was sent flying by a clumsy challenge from Ivanovic which earned him a deserved yellow card, the first of the night. The pace had been electric so far and nothing less than what was expected from two of the best teams in the league. Chants of “Ji Sung Park! Ji Sung Park!” reverberated across the cafe only to be changed to “Van Der Sar! Van Der Sar!” a few minutes later. Meanwhile food and beer arrived. The next 15 minutes went off in a frenzy as the mouth worked furiously on some wonderful pizzas and the delectable Tower burger. Manchester United’s pace hadn’t slacked a bit and the tempo at which they were playing was causing Chelsea plenty of problems. Rooney had another shot go fizzing past the post and Park Ji Sung continued to remain immense in the mid-field. It was only time when fate struck another crucial blow to Carlo Ancelotti’s nutters. From a beautifully worked short corner, the Sachin Tendulkar of Old Trafford, Sir Ryan Giggs (He is not yet Knighted, but will soon be according to this) sent in a wicked cross which was headed powerfully in by Vidic(why do I not have him in my fantasy football team!) as most of the other Chelsea defenders sat ball-watching. 2-0 to United and things were looking really good.

ManU continued to dominate the proceedings and with that the confidence of fans shot up. Fingers were being shown to Chelsea supporters all around, even though one of them was only 6’5” and must have weighed some 240 pounds. This so called Goliath from Chelsea base of supporters got hold of one puny ManU fan who incessantly manifested his love for the “birdie” and told him to shut the hell up or fear for his dear life. Since the showdown happened right next to where we were standing, I had already planned 10 different evasive actions in my mind, in case he were to come after me after spotting my shiny, new, red jacket! The rest of the half passed in a blur amidst yellow cards, off-target strikes and some intelligent ball possession. Before we realised it was half-time and ManU had just had one of their best first-halves ever. “Glory Glory Man United” was belted at full blast from the really impressive Bose speakers. Now time for the second half.

The second half started with Chelsea making a slew of changes which seemed to work. Suddenly Chelsea were the better team and the break had broken United’s momentum. However, the main talk of this half was still restricted to the substitution that would allow Torres to finally prove worthy of the menial fee of £50m. Drogba had already made his intentions clear with a strike which he dragged wide of Van Der Sar’s right post. Torres’s introduction was being disputed hotly when Lampard struck. From a corner, which Ivanovic cleverly managed to flick on, Lampard just hung his boot out and before we knew the match had transformed into a really intense battle. 2-1 to Chelsea with over 20 minutes to go. Tension was suddenly palpable in every face except for a few who thought that 1 one goal was their road to perdition. Abuses were now flying thick and fast. Some aimed them at the referee for not awarding an “obvious” penalty and others at United’s players for misplacing their passes. Slowly but surely United got their game together and were now threatening Chelsea’s citadel with every surging move. Valencia had decided that enough is enough and chose instead to display that he had fully recovered from that devastating ankle injury. He was running rings around the defence and was getting inside the Chelsea defence much too easily. First Rooney and then Chicharito missed glorious opportunities to put United ahead 3-1. Chance after chance went begging as Man United piled on the pressure only to lose it in the final third of the field. Time swept from 70 to 80 to 88 mins. The inconsolable feeling that every United miss might come back to haunt them kept rearing its ugly head only to go down with United’s next goal-bound effort. 90 minutes up. 4 mins of injury time. Now was the time when tension reached its crescendo. Every time Chelsea had the ball, a terrible feeling of a goal being scored ran in my mind. However disaster was averted as Manchester United kept their cool to register what should be the most important victory of the season, the one that almost seals their 19th Title.

The celebrations after the final whistle is something that I will never forget. Johny was disappointed that his presence didn’t result in a United loss, after all his presence had led to 2 United losses this year, one of them at the hands of Wolves. Kramnik and Saadiya were enjoying the celebrations although they found “Glory Glory Man United” to be similar to a “Christmas Carol” [codename for “gay” these days]. There was dancing and high fives all around with supporters forming huddles here and there. The Chelsea fans had fought valiantly right till the very end, but the cafe is like Troy where Achilles slays Hector irrespective of whatever happens in the rest of the movie! We made the wise decision of getting out while the party was still on. It was truly satisfying to have been part of this victory, for it gave me leverage to two things. One, to wear my shiny,new, red training jacket to office the next day and second to rub it in the faces of all the Chelsea fans out there in my office! In the end, its “Glory Glory Man United, Glory Glory Man United, Glory Glory Man United, as the reds go marching on on on!!”

Group B has seen a cyclic chain forming with almost everyone beating everyone; India, Bangladesh, England, South Africa in that order.  This has resulted in an interesting scenario, a case-study of sorts and will definitely feature in all the MBA examinations for the coming year! [should be in the Data Interpretation section]. Group A meanwhile has chugged along in a less chaotic manner with the quarter finalists already decided. However it has come down to the fact that positions 1,2,3 and 4 will be decided by 2 matches: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka [happening now] and Pakistan vs Australia.

Let us first take a look at the points table and do a little PnC:

Group A:

Since the group standings will be decided by two matches, let us look at all the various combinations possible:"

• Aus – win [11], NZ – win [10], Pak – loss [8],  SL – loss [7]
• NZ – win [10], Pak – win [10], Aus – loss [9],  SL – loss [7]
• Aus – win [11],  SL – win [9], NZ – loss [8], Pak – loss [8]
• Pak – win [10], SL – win [9],  Aus – loss [9],  NZ – loss [8]

These are all the combinations possible and by the looks of it, apart from SL all the other 3 teams have a chance of finishing 1st.  That makes for an enticing final 2 matches  as finishing on top leaves you with the possibility of playing a slightly weaker team from the other group.

Group B:

Unlike Group A, this group has 5 teams fighting for the 4 qualifying spots and has witnessed a lot of drama, especially the matches involving England. Matches remaining in the group [the important ones]:

Bangladesh vs South Africa and India vs West Indies

Various Combinations possible:

• SA – win [10], Ind – win [9], Eng – [7], WI – loss [6]/Ban – loss[6](will come down to NRR)
• SA – win [10], WI – win [8], Eng – [7]/Ind – loss [7] (will take up the last 2 positions depending on NRR)
• Ind – win [9], SA – loss [8]/ Ban – win [8], Eng – [7] ( positions 2,3 will be decided on NRR )
• WI -  win [8]/Ban – win [8]/SA – loss [8], Ind – loss[7]/Eng – [7] (All positions to be decided on NRR)

This just reinforces the fact that Group B has been very competitive and equally chaotic.

India will miss out on a top 4 spot only if Bangladesh beat South Africa and they lose to West Indies by a big margin thereby dragging their NRR less than England’s.

England’s fate although not in their hands lies firmly in India’s hands. An Indian win assures them of a place in the quarter finals, while a loss makes the situation slightly more complex. [If SA win, Eng are still through, however if SA lose, then it comes down to NRR b/w Ind and Eng]

West Indies are in a strong position still even after yesterday’s thrilling defeat to England. The only way WI will not make it to the quarter finals is if they lose to Ind and Ban defeat SA (highly unlikely, with no serious disrespect to Bangladesh) or they lose to Ind by a big margin, causing their NRR to drop below Ban [assuming Ban lose to South Africa).

Bangladesh have revived their campaign with that famous win over England. A win against table toppers SA and they are through to the knock out stages while a loss will leave their fate tantalisingly poised on NRR (assuming Ind win against WI). A Ban defeat and a WI win against Ind will end Bangladesh’s world cup campaign.

South Africa have already qualified for the knock out stages and a win against Ban will assure them of top spot. A loss however will again cause the evil called “NRR” to run riot and decide their position which could be anything from 1 to 3.

So there you have it. While it took me a single paragraph to lay out the combinations in Group A, Group B is nothing short of the toughest Data Interpretation (DI) question you will ever get in a CAT examination .

Finally, as an author of this post, I definitely retain the right to post my opinion on what the group standings will turn out to be:

Pakistan will win against Australia, Sri Lanka will beat New Zealand

So A1)Pakistan  A2)Sri Lanka  A3)Australia  A4)New Zealand 

India will defeat West Indies and South Africa will smash Bangladesh

So B1)South Africa  B2)India  B3)England  B4)West Indies

Quarter Final Line up:

                        Australia -  India

                       South Africa – New Zealand

                       Sri Lanka – England

                       West Indies– Pakistan

Let the “Prediction” game begin !!

Every time the World Cup approaches, the Indian marketing/media fraternity goes into an overdrive hyping up the country’s chances and bestows unprecedented expectations on the already “burdened” team. Worn out reels of Kapil taking that magnificent catch to dismiss Richards, of Balwinder Sandhu producing that unplayable delivery and the mighty effective dibbly dobblies of Mohinder Amarnath do the rounds on almost all channels, all advertisements. Numerous past players are interviewed and other less fortunate ones are made part of expert panels which continues to dole out expert analysis 24*7. Under such excruciating pressure if cricketers admit to isolating themselves from the daily world, nobody can blame them for there is only so much you can do to maintain your sanity. However, the country only wishes them the very best of luck, something our captain, MS Dhoni, brings with him in plenty.

As a kid I remember that my first interest in cricket arose from watching the little master in ‘96 World Cup tear opposition attacks to shreds. The master-piece innings of 90 against the Australians is something that I will never forget. That you could get stumped off a wide delivery was a fact unknown to most of us and after Sachin’s dismissal, a prompt change in rules was made in the book-of-decision-making of “Colony cricket”, a format of cricket developed in house. The love for the game developed then hasn’t dwindled a wee bit so far and neither has the expectation placed on the team. Just like any World Cup, I expect India to win and for good reason too. A lot has changed since the disaster of 2007 and it is a sentiment shared by almost a billion people, but for sentiment to give way to pure belief, it will solely depend on how India progress in the tournament. India definitely have the squad, the best of conditions and the support of the entire nation to make this event a water-shed for the current squad and also spare us from watching the old reels of ‘83 again and again.

A lot of events from the not so long ago have done their very best to take the focus off the game. The IPL Saga of who is the owner of which team, who is paying how much and is the IPL  commissioner siding with teams did the rounds of media for quite some time before everything was hushed up and swept under the carpet with typical “Indian” ease. The only fallout was that of Lalit Modi, the impostor of Indian cricket, being fired from his position, continuing the tradition of always firing a scapegoat to control the wagging tongues. Then the Spot-fixing scandal came along where the World mourned the loss of perhaps the best opening bowling combination of Asif and Amir. However, all that is past and the focus is firmly on the present. Tomorrow the event begins and it promises to be a cracker. Lot of teams will see their dreams broken and a few will rise to unprecedented glory. A few players will see their names etched in Gold forever while a few will be mocked for their mistakes, costly ones at that [Remember Gibbs’s premature climaxing in ‘99 World Cup]. Will India win the World Cup ?? YES!! Will Sachin finally get to lay his hands on a World Cup ?? YES!! Will you stop watching cricket if India doesn’t win the World Cup ?? OF course not. Nothing will change, as it has not for the last 15 years and it will not in the next 15 years. Such is an Indian cricket fan..

Aside:[Bloggers are a selfish lot when it comes to topics. Anything that gives them scope to gun down more words in a blog post, obviously ranks higher in their list of priorities rather than mundane topics like Yedurappa's never ending land-scams, BJP's inspirational flag-hoisting march in Kashmir and Wirpo's sacking of its co-CEOs]

India’s world cup squad has already been announced. This is what the final squad looks like [in no particular order]:

• Gautam Gambhir
• Virender Sehwag
• Sachin Tendulkar
• Mahendra Singh Dhoni [captain and wicket-keeper]
• Yuvraj Singh
• Suresh Raina
• Virat Kohli
• Yusuf Pathan
• Harbhajan Singh
• Zaheer Khan
• Praveen Kumar
• Ashish Nehra
• Munaf Patel
• Ravichandran Ashwin
• Piyush Chawla

A lot of ink has already been spent on discussing and dissecting the squad. A lot of it makes sense too. For instance, why was Piyush Chawla picked, when he hasn’t really played for India in an ODI since July’08 [He played yesterday in the final ODI against South Africa. You all saw, how that turned out. No wickets at 4.57 in 7 overs and 8 with the bat. So much for being someone who can bowl "good" leg-spin and bat a "bit" too.]. Is Praveen Kumar a better bowler than Sreesanth or Ishant Sharma in Indian conditions? [we all know that the only thing that Praveen Kumar can do is swing the ball. If the ball doesn't swing, which it will not in India, he is as good a bowler as I am, although I chuck and my hand undergoes this devilish contortion as the ball comes out of it, thereby distracting the batsman and working to my advantage ]

Now let’s talk about Virat Kohli. I was actually discussing with a friend on what would India’s expected playing XI be for most of the World Cup. Barring a few injuries here and there, this is what came out of the discussion:

Sachin and Sehwag to open the innings. Gambhir to come at 1-down. Yuvraj Singh, Dhoni and Raina to form the middle order. Yusuf Pathan takes no.7 followed by Harbhajan, Zaheer, Patel and Nehra.

In 9 out of 10 cases, this would be India’s ideal line-up. However, Kohli’s improvement as a player in the past 6 months and the fact that he looked India’s most assured and consistent batsman in the ODI series against South Africa called for a different perspective. Can a young player, who looks in really good nick, has a brilliant temperament[critical for high pressure tournaments like the World Cup] and is also a stunning fielder, be left out of the team?  Then I saw this Tweet from my friend, @harshmaskara. This made things even more interesting. Is Kohli really battling for a place with Raina, although both of them bat at different positions [Kohli's preferred position is 1-down and Raina comes in at no.6] and bring different things to the table. As if all this wasn’t enough, my friend, Tanuj Gupta [who in my opinion is the greatest bowler not to have played competitive cricket and by competitive, I mean college-level cricket] argued with me on why Yuvraj should stay in the team and not Kohli, it really set the cat among the pigeons. So basically if you look at it Yuvraj, Raina and Kohli are fighting for two of the slots which I have deemed available in the playing XI.

This is my assessment:

Yuvraj Singh at this point of time is really irreplaceable. Yes, he hasn’t been in good form through the whole of 2010 and has been found wanting in terms of technique on the African pitches that offer more bounce and pronounced seam-movement but a Yuvraj Singh on Indian pitches is a different monster. Once he is assured of the fact that he won’t be bounced out any given moment and that he can hit through the line, there is hardly anyone who can strike the ball as cleanly as far as him [not even Yusuf Pathan can beat him there]. If you look at his record in 2010, he did reasonably well at home, scoring runs at 59.33(av) and taking wickets too [find the stats here. source: Cricinfo]. The latter is also very relevant because he seems to be Dhoni’s first choice when it comes to part-time spinners. So Yuvraj Singh in my opinion is definitely taking one of the two spots.

That leaves us with Raina and Kohli. One thing is for sure, that none of them can play at no.3 slot. Not trying to say, that the batting order is fixed and highly rigid, but if Gambhir has to play, then the most optimal scenario would be for him to either open with Tendulkar and Sehwag to come as 1-down or Sehwag to open and Gambhir to follow suit. Either ways, 1-down position is taken.[Gambhir is a natural opener and playing him any lower than no.3 wouldn't really make any sense] Now the only slot remaining is that of no.6, the position of the finisher, where Raina generally likes to bat. These are a few numbers that I pulled from Cricinfo Statsguru. In the last 2 years, in all the matches played in India, Raina has played in 12 of them. He has scored 331 runs at an av of 41.37. His strike-rate in most of the innings has either been a run every ball or well above that. Virat Kohli on the other hand has not played in that position in any of the matches [I pulled out stats for Virat Kohli, playing at no.3 for the last 2 years. The numbers are staggering. He has scored 419 runs in just 8 matches at an av. of 59.85, with 2 100s and 3 50+ scores.]. So does it really make sense to pick Kohli and make him play at a slot where he hasn’t played thus far and all this when we already have a proven finisher in Raina who is used to the rigors of playing at No.6. Playing at 1-down is very different from playing no.6 because at 1-down, you often get more overs to play with, so that you can get your eye in before you play the big shots. But as a finisher, you are either expected to steer your team to a sizable total with whatever overs you are left with or architect your team’s run-chase in case the top-order has failed to do its job. I am not trying to belittle Kohli’s talent by saying that he cannot perform as a finisher, but at an event as big as the World Cup, nerves play a much heightened role. It is then that familiarity to the duty you are expected to perform comes in handy. Also Raina’s part-time spin will definitely help Dhoni in terms of the bowling options at Dhoni’s command. With World Cup, its all about picking the right players for the right roles, even if it means leaving out some who are definitely better than others in the team in other aspects.

So it seems as if Mr.Kohli will have to wait another 4 years before he can participate in the World cup, at least that’s the outcome my blog seems to predict!! Kindly feel free to send in your views. A debate on cricket is always healthy, even though it may tend to get a little violent and personal at times

I was in Pondicherry when all the “auction” panned out. In fact I had totally forgotten that there was an IPL auction going on, but thanks to Twitter and in no small terms to @cric_buzz , @rameshsrivats , my iPhone 4 and Airtel EDGE [outstanding connectivity    I must say] that I kept getting constant stream of updates on who went where and for how much. The start was so legendary with “Gauti” going for a giganticus amount of    $ 2.4 million and that kind of set the event up for what was to be an outrageous auction. “Icon” Players were dumped, unknown players were bought for unthinkable amounts, officials playing dual roles of mentors/business advisors/coach and finally the Bollywood angle, which no event in India is spared from. Now that the dust has settled and most of the fight is now focussed on the “uncapped” players, I thought it makes sense to sit down and review the squads and also come out with my first blog-post of the new year [Happy new year to all the readers!!]

Since there are 10 teams in the fray this time, I will be reviewing the first 5 teams that come to my mind [with absolutely no prior bias towards these teams!]. And the teams are..

• Chennai Super Kings
• Royal Challengers Bangalore
• Rajasthan Royals
• Kochi
• Kings XI Punjab

Chennai Super Kings [CSK]

Squad:

CSK is always canny when it comes to picking the “right” players and this is what exactly happened this time round too. The main strategy was to win back as many players from earlier team as possible so as to retain the basic core. And they were very successful in doing that, buying back as many as 7 of them. While the batting has the familiar look of the Rainas, the Vijays and the Husseys, it is the bowling that they have sought to strengthen this time and to some level they have. Nuwan Kulasekara at $100,000 was an absolute “steal” and so was Dwyane Bravo at his base price [$200,000]. The bowling attack should revolve around R Ashwin, the pick of the Indian bowlers from the past IPLs, while Bollinger, 1 out of [Kulasekara, Randiv and Hilfenhaus] and either of Sudeep Tyagi and Joginder Sharma [most probably Sudeep] should complete the bowling line up. They have awesome all-rounders in Albie Morkel, the enigmatic Bravo and wily old-fox Styris. Another smart move was to have an established keeper apart from Dhoni, who could bat too, so that some weight could be taken off Dhoni’s already burdened back. With squad size being capped at 30, CSK needs to do some thinking with respect to the composition of rest of the squad as it currently has 18 players [8 Indians, 10 foreigners].

Expected Line-up:

1. Murali Vijay
2. —?— [could be Saha, who could be asked to open the innings and also keep]
3. Suresh Raina
4. Michael Hussey*
5. S Badrinath
6. MS Dhoni
7. Dwyane Bravo*
8. Albie Morkel*
9. R Ashwin
10. Sudeep Tyagi
11. Bollinger*

[* means foreign players, where the limit still stands at 4. Don’t exactly know who will open. Also they could choose to go with Randiv instead for Bollinger to add more teeth to the spin department]

This looks an extremely well-balanced side and should be one of the “usual suspects” at the later stages.

Royal Challengers Bangalore [RCB]

Squad:

Definitely not the “Test-Match” team of IPL 1, this team has plenty of youngsters, going in sync with the owner of RCB. The upcoming stars of Indian cricket, Kohli, Pujara and Tiwary should form the fulcrum around which RCB’s batting should revolve. The explosive pair of Dilshan and AB de Villiers [snatched away from Delhi Daredevils] should add tremendous amount of fire-power to what looks like a fine batting line-up. The bowling attack looks equally fiery with Zaheer and Nannes taking up with new-ball duties and Mithun complementing them as first change. Vettori who came rather cheap at $550,000 should take care of the spin department. Although this looks a settled line-up, the lack of spinners should be a major concern for RCB. Completing the squad of 30 looks another problem to me, since they don’t have a lot left in the kitty [having shelled out big moolah on Tiwary, AB and Khan] and have only 16 players [6 Indian, 10 Foreign] for now. Also, they have surprisingly chosen to buy a lot of “deadwood” from Punjab [Kaif and Pomersbach], which looks rather strange to me. Letting go of Robin “Onion” Uthappa may be a big crowd turn off. However, if they manage to get Manish Pandey, the knowledgeable crowd of Bangalore should pour in.

Expected Line Up:

1. Tilekratne Dilshan*
2. Manish Pandey [considering they manage to get him]
3. Virat Kohli
4. AB de Villiers*
5. Cheteshwar Pujara
6. Saurabh Tiwary
7. Daniel Vettori*
8. —?— [incorporate some Indian spinner here]
9. Zaheer Khan
10. Abhimanyu Mithun
11. Dirk Nannes

Another awesome line-up, well balanced. A quality spinner will make this line-up even more formidable. AB de Villiers is an extremely good buy, as I felt he was getting wasted at Delhi Daredevils with Sehwag, Gambhir and Warner hogging too much of batting time and the limelight.

Rajasthan Royals [RR]

Squad:

Honestly, I feel this team is weaker than the one Rajasthan Royals had in 2008 [when everyone expected them to burn in hell and die]. RR were only allowed to spend $7 million unlike the $9 million for the rest of the franchisees [read here] and even then they decided to shell out $1.8 million for their erstwhile captain, Shane Warne. What was even more puzzling was the purchase of another spinner, foreign one at that, Johan Botha, for another $950,000 which must count as one of the craziest buys of the auction. This reduced their purse greatly and forced them to continue the auction on a thread-bare budget. With only 8 players being bought [2 Indians, 6 foreigners], RR will have to come up with “Special” picks from the catchment area [Remember Swapnil Asnodkar, Kamran Khan ??] Also, knowing how injury prone the Aussie pair of Watson and Tait are, picking them may not have been the best trick in the book. However, I don’t think all is lost like RR showed in 2008. The Ranji team of Rajasthan is doing really well [currently contesting the Ranji trophy finals] and has some really exciting prospects. If these players can come to the party, RR has a more than solid senior core of players in Dravid the “Wall”, Collingwood the “fighter” and Warne the “magician” who can serve as mentors to the rest. This will reduce the burden on Taylor, Watson and Tait who can then go ahead and express themselves in a deadly fashion. But for now lets only sit back and see how RR play their cards.

[Their squad is too small at the moment for me to come up with an expected line up.]

Kochi [no “fancy” name has been released till now]

Squad:

Lets’s not get into how Kochi as an IPL team finally got here. I am sure all that has been well documented, much discussed and dissected. However, having finally got here, the team selection that panned out, seems really curious to me. The team if you look at it has a strong South Indian flavour. VVS [Hyderabad], Vinay Kumar[Bangalore], Sreesanth [Kerela], Jayawardene, Muralitharan and Perera [Sri Lanka] to name a few. Now the Kochi team hasn’t really picked the best batting line-up of the IPL, nor is it the worst either. They are strong on the spin department and do average on both the fast bowling front and allrounders. They bought 17 players in the auction [7 Indian, 10 Foreigners] and seem to have a grip on where the money is going. The next challenge would be to fill up the squad judiciously, a challenge most other squads are already struggling with.

Expected Line Up:

1. Brendon McCullum*
2. Mahel Jayawardene*
3. VVS Laxman
4. Parthiv Patel
5. Steven Smith*
6. Ravindra Jadeja
7. –?–[spot for another Indian batsman]
8. Ramesh Powar
9. RP Singh
10. Sreesanth
11. Muralitharan

Not the most balanced of line-ups. Kochi needs to figure out a good way of fitting in their Foreign players or a lot of them will be left un-utilised. The opening pair of McCullum and Jayawardene should be exciting to watch. Otherwise the batting looks thin.

Kings XI Punjab [KXIP]

Squad:

Another of the troubled franchisees who went through a lot of internal turmoil, but now hopefully everything is behind this team which promised a lot, but stunningly failed to deliver. Getting rid of Yuvraj Singh at this point was the best decision the franchise could have made and the man replacing him is even better, an absolute legend who knows a thing or two about building a team, having guided Deccan Chargers to IPL glory in 2009 [read: Adam Gilchrist]. Having Gilchrist as a captain will bring a lot of stability. Also, with Shaun Marsh in the team, KXIP will resolve their first major problem of earlier events, that of an aggressive opening combination. In the earlier versions, KXIP had a make-shift opening combination which often resulted in the team getting off to a poor start. In a game where a few overs can decide everything, KXIP always started with a handicap. This time, it has been corrected. Having said this, the batting still looks weak and they would really have to to recruit the best of Indian domestic talent to fill this hole. Spinners in this format are very important, but spending $900,000 on someone who isn’t even competent enough to represent the country [read: Piyush Chawla], doesn’t seem a very smart or economical decision to me. The team’s strength lies in its fast bowling resources, but even that has a *conditions apply* tag. Stuart Broad will only be available for 2 weeks and Ryan Harris, although a supreme bowler, isn’t the fittest of the lot. There are lot of chinks in the team, but with expert guidance and some smart thinking, this team can finally deliver on its potential.

Expected Line Up:

1. Adam Gilchirst*
2. Shaun Marsh*
3. Dinesh Karthik
4. David Hussey*
5. Abhishek Nayar
6. –?–[Another Indian batsman/allrounder]
7. Piyush Chawla
8. Stuart Broad*
9. Praveen Kumar
10.   –?–
11.   –?–

Like I said, the team has many holes/vacancies. But with good selections from the domestic contingent, this team may turn out to be the dark horse of the tournament.

This completes Part –1 of squad reviews. I shall review the other 5 teams in another blog-post. Opinions and Judgements are always welcome!!

Based on today’s matches, the Semi-finals have almost been decided. Slight amount of drama still remains in the draw, but that should be over and done with once tomorrow’s matches pan out.

The points table at the moment looks like this:

Tomorrow’s matches:

• CSK vs KXIP
• DD vs DC

So unlike last time, there are only 2 scenarios here, and they depend on CSK’s performance.

If CSK win:

Owing to their superior run rate, which will only improve after the match, CSK will be ahead of RCB(how they will be ruing their performance against MI). It is unlikely that KKR, even if they win against MI, will be able to pull their run-rate and make it better than RCB. So, almost certainly, CSK will take the 3rd position and RCB, 4th position(something that was unthinkable just a few days ago ) with MI assured of 1st position. That brings us to the match between DD and DC. It will become a virtual knockout, with the winner taking the 2nd position and thus avoid playing red-hot MI in the semi-finals.

so the semi-finals line up will look something like this:

MI vs RCB (what most of my friends wanted since the semi-finals are at Bangalore, but after today’s bomb scare, there are talks of shifting the semi-final out of Bangalore, which though a tad unfair is in a way, inevitable)

CSK vs DD/DC

However if CSK lose:

They will be out of the competition(will fail to reach the semi-finals for the first time, something Dhoni will not really like). The winner of the match between DC and DD will take the no.2 position in the table. Meanwhile KKR will get a new lease of life. If they win against MI, they will be on equal points with loser of [DC vs DD] and NRR will decide who takes the 4th spot. RCB, owing to their superior NRR(which is unlikely to be toppled) will take the 3rd position with MI retaining their pole position. So now the semi-finals line up will look something like this:

for simplification, assuming DD will beat DC(my bias talking here.. )

MI vs DC/KKR

RCB vs DD

————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

I have been working on this for 2 days now, and it was only after yesterday night’s results, that things became a little more clear. The table has a really complicated look to it, complicated enough for some people in my office to start a theory of “Match Fixing”. According to these highly-intellectual cricket loving mortals, all the matches have been fixed and the top 4 has already been decided. But all the twists and turns have been brought in, only to make it look really close and unsuspecting. I am totally against this ghastly theory, for I cannot believe senior players like Kumble, Dravid, Sachin etc throwing matches, not even in my dreams. However it is really peculiar that the table sits the way it does at the moment with all teams having some mathematical chance of making it through to the semi-finals. Let us now take a look at how teams can qualify for the semi-finals.

Mumbai Indians are already through and they have done it in style by sealing their no.1 position with 2 matches still left in their itinerary. Let us start with the team lying at the bottom, Kings XI Punjab(KXIP). It is hard to believe that a team that has lost 8 out of the 12 matches played so far, still has a mathematical chance of qualifying for the knock-out round. But that is how things are at the moment.

Blue – Win/Loss  Red – Loss Green – Win (1 and 2 indicate the order in which teams play each other e.g, KXIP will play DC first and then CSK)

1. For KXIP to go through, the first thing that they will need to do is win both their matches, albeit against strong oppositions of Chennai Super Kings(CSK) and Deccan Chargers(DC), and take their tally to 12.
2. The other important event would be Kolkata Knight Riders(KKR) defeating Rajasthan Royals(RR), which is totally possible considering the fact that KKR would be playing at home and RR would have been totally demoralised after the crushing defeat at the hands of Royal Challengers Bangalore(RCB).
3. Then Delhi Daredevils(DD) will need to beat both CSK and DC.

If these 3 things happen, it will be a shoot-out between 5 teams for the 4th spot and that too will only be decided on NRR-net run rate. However, the probability of all the 3 things happening is very low and so are KXIP’s chances of proceeding to the semi-finals.

Now let us talk about Kolkata Knight Riders:

Things are not as bad as SRK might think. But it is crunch time for KKR and they really need to execute their plans to perfection. Go home to Eden, and win your remaining 2 matches, taking your tally to 14. The match between KKR and RR is a virtual quarter-final. Whoever loses that, is definitely out, unless there is the KXIP scenario which we talked about earlier. So if KKR have to qualify:

1. They need to beat RR and then MI
2. DD don’t lose both their matches(against CSK and DC)
3. RCB loses its final match against MI.

If condition 1 is true, and any one condition out of 2 or 3 is true, KKR will be definitely in the race for a spot in the semi-finals. But that race will only be determined by.. that dreaded term for IPL franchisees, “NRR”.

Here are some of the scenarios:

Moving onto Rajasthan Royals:

RR have been a blow-hot blow-cold kind of a team, which has been typical of the team ever since their victory in IPL’08. For them to qualify, they will again have to rely on NRR. Their conditions are exactly the same with what KKR have.

1. Defeat KKR in their last league match.
2. Hope DD don’t lose both their league matches.
3. RCB lose their last league match.

Condition 1 is absolutely mandatory, together with a combination of either of the condition no.2/3 will provide RR with a chance to contest for a spot in the semi-finals.

Here is one of the scenarios:

These were the more trickier of the P&Cs. For Rest of the teams, the equation is simpler. Win your remaining games and you shall have your fate in your own hands. RCB, DD, DC and CSK all have to do this to ensure a sure-shot place in the semi-finals without having to rely on the tricky NRR situation.

Now RCB have their last league match against MI(Home)

DD have 2 games against CSK(away) and DC(Home).

CSK have 2 games against DD(Home) and KXIP(Away)

DC have 2 games against KXIP(adopted home) and DD(Away)

All these matches will be very competitive and high-pressure games. It is really difficult to point out who will come up trumps in these games, given the nature of the tournament so far.

Everything said and done, my final Top 4 would look like:

1. MI(obvious)
2. RCB
3. CSK
4. DD(probably on NRR)

This is totally my opinion and the analysis done above might have its flaws, but given the clamor and confusion regarding who all can qualify, I have tried to make it a little simpler for people when they discuss this heated topic in their respective offices

The history of IPL so far:
IPL 1: It was runaway success with the crowds lapping it up, partly because of the shrewd division of cricket teams into region based teams which promoted unprecedented show of jingoism and partly because of the high-octane cricket played all around. Shane Warne, who most Australian players regard as the best captain never to have captained Australia, did something amazing. He picked up a team of also-ran and motivated them through some mysterious means (most of the reasons provided by media is bull shit. How can you motivate someone by calling him “superstar” or “rocket”. Well people call me the “Usual” and back in college, even worse, but this never spurred me to go and achieve great things in life. Similarly a tournament spread over a month and 63 matches needs more motivation than just calling special names. And hell no, calling names never motivates anyone ) However I have nothing else but respect for Warne, because irrespective of his methods, his team outperformed everyone and they beat Chennai Super Kings(led by Dhoni) in a peach of a final. The picture of Yusuf Pathan running towards Warne with the bat and arms raised will be etched in the minds of cricket lovers for a long time to come.

IPL 2: Full Drama, sometimes putting even Shahrukh Khan’s recently released MNIK to shame, ensued with respect to the grave situation of security in the country. Mr. Chidambaran, the much maligned home minister of India then, decided enough is enough. “yaha desh ki lagi padi hai aur inhe cricket ki padi hai.. jao.. nahi dete hum security cover. jo ukhadna hai ukhad lo..“(Translation for people like my dear friend @kranium256: The entire country is in turmoil, and you morons can only think about cricket. Do what you want but I am not providing any security cover) So after this, BCCI announced that they would be shifting IPL outside India and after doing a lot of calculations and ensuring that their pockets would be more than full, they decided to go with South Africa as their host for the IPL. Lalit Modi worked day and night and ensured that IPL schedule was beset by only a week and when the event did start, it was a cracker. Twists and turns galore, the event which again witnessed high quality cricket and even more record-breaking TV viewership, culminated in an emotionally charged final between the last 2 place holders of IPL 1(Deccan Chargers and Bangalore Royal Challengers). Deccan Chargers came up trumps and with that Adam Gilchrist became the face of numerous statues in almost every traffic square in Hyderabad(Also suddenly Deccan Chronicle became the highest selling newspaper surpassing, the mighty and shitty,Times of India(I call it “shitty” because TOI made a fool of me with regards to date of CAT results and earned me collective scorn of a lot of my friends, who continue to eyeball me even today for that rookie mistake and “mighty” because only TOI as an organisation can get away with something this heinous). Jokes apart, the IPL 2 was again a roaring success and only strengthened people’s idea regarding IPL as a wonderful revenue model for cricket.

Now back to IPL 3:
IPL 3 started on the same lines as IPL 2, although this time the Indian Government had no role to play in the drama, with players threatening a mass pull out from the event. Whenever it comes to security, Australia is the first country to chicken out. Their board is the first one to announce, “We are unhappy with security provided and this puts our players in grave danger, with a perceivable threat to their lives”(this line has been totally made up by me just to give you the picture) and then an in-fighting starts where the retired players want to play and the new ones scurry for cover. I mean seriously, what the hell!! if a country is organizing an event on such a scale, is it dumb enough to ignore security?? Also, how the hell can they provide you with security details? if they did, how would it remain secret anyways ?? However Lalit Modi showed fantastic composure and obduracy and warned the players in no sweet terms, that if they boycott this event, they would be penalised heavily and the penalty would definitely involve losing out on money. He made his intentions very clear and the response was prompt. Ravi Bopara(who plays for England and Punjab Kings XI) who had earlier declared, “Cricket is my living and in many ways my life. But it is not worth dying for” was the first one to announce his arrival in India and soon most, no all the players followed. Suddenly even Australian cricket board(CA) became fine with the security arrangements. Lot of players taking advantage of the new revolution, Twitter announced how happy they were about playing in India as the crowd in India was amazing and the playing atmosphere and blah blah blah. Nonsense, if you were always so happy and excited about playing in India, then why create so much of drama in the first place.

Since then, however it has been all smooth sailing, with the IPL wave reaching a memorable crescendo in the jaw-dropping opening ceremony at the D.Y.Patil stadium in Nerul, Navi Mumbai, although some people did complain about the length of such a ceremony and its futility with respect to cricket. Well, cricket is not simply cricket anymore, it comes with its own added baggage, something everyone has taken a liking to, apart from the purists of course.

It’s been only 5 days into the tournament and we have already witnessed some mind-numbing innings, one by Yusuf Pathan in that 37-ball carnage and one today by Jacques Kallis. Yusuf Pathan at the moment likes to play only for Rajasthan Royals for he looks a pale shadow of his IPL form when he plays for the country. The 37-ball 100 witnessed some shots of terrifying monstrosity, with everything that flies in the air coming in grave danger of being hit by a bullet/rocket, call it what you may. Kallis on the other hand, has now combined his efficiency and consistency with his tough physique to deadly effects. Chasing 204 takes some doing and it becomes even more special, when you start and finish it off yourself.

A look at the points table:

Delhi have been their usual self, collecting points and victories with an Australian like ruthlessness. They have a few chinks in their armor, but they generally tend to iron them out as the league progresses until they reach the semi-finals where they inexplicably decide to self-destruct spectacularly. I still count them as favorites for this year’s title. Chennai powered by Dhoni somehow always manage to find the answers at the right time and come up with a solution that would take them to at least the semi-final. Might not be this year though, as some other teams have entered into the fray with renewed zest and focus. Bangalore as a team always flatter to deceive and just when you think that they would sink without a trace, they come up with a performance like today’s which makes you sit up and take notice. However I don’t expect to make it to the semi-finals this year. Kolkata, spurned on by the Dada factor and also the fact that they would have Bond, Gayle and David “Bomber” Hussey for majority of the tournament, look really strong contenders this year. I expect them to at least make the semi-finals.

Mumbai might feel that this might finally be their year. With Pollard, the new T-20 sensation on the block, and Calypso-king Bravo joining the squad, they have a very capable team of reaching at least the semi-final. Deccan usually stutter their way through the tournament, huffing and puffing along and I foresee no difference this year too, though I marvel how Adam Gilchrist manages to come back after a year of no cricket and just starts belting the ball to all corners of the park. Some people I guess, are just born to hit a cricket ball as far as they can. It would be a close call between Chennai and Deccan this year for the final semi-final spot. Rajasthan are terribly out of depth this year and with Graeme Smith being ruled out of tournament with a finger injury and Mascharenhas also going back to England(for a reason I do not know, but Shilpa Shetty, another Preity Zinta in the making as far as IPL is concerned, tweeted this piece of news) the squad looks awfully thin. Punjab, need to sort out their problems, because when their batting clicks, bowling fails and vice-versa, not to mention the woeful fielding.

And so my choice of semi-finalists would be:
• Delhi Daredevils
• Kolkata Knight Riders
• Mumbai Indians
• Chennai Super Kings/ Deccan Chargers

But this is solely my opinion and I would love to see how things actually pan out in reality. But for now let us sit back and enjoy the spectacle that is IPL, for there are plenty of matches to come, plenty of Yusuf-like innings still to be seen and plenty of time and money still to be wasted in going to sportsbars and cheering your team even when they are 10/3 and chasing 204. Such is the power of IPL, such is the impression it creates on our minds..

Since the 2nd ODI between India and South Africa was to start at only 2:30 p.m., I still had time to kill and so I went out for a sumptuous lunch. By the time I came back it was already 3 and the match had started. I immediately opened cricinfo, but like all Indian things, it has a tendency of failing just when you need it the most . So I turned to my other favorite cricket site, Cricbuzz and I noticed that India had just lost Sehwag for 9. The odd thing to note was, that Sachin, usually a slow starter these days, had already raced to 36(27). I felt something elusive was in the making and informed my cubicle colleague about this. But it drew a customary response as does all my sports updates(except for Tennis, for she is a mad Nadal fan, probably a bigger fan of Nadal than Shahrukh Khan, which is a big deal )

I always wanted to do something with cricket being my chosen field of work. So I once worked for Cricbuzz as a text-commentator, but that did not materialize into a full-time job(My parents threatened to kick me out of the house and deny me possession of the gigantic family mansion at Timbaktoo) and so started my commentary, or more like updates on Twitter. So while Sachin was starting to open up against the hapless South African bowlers, I was beginning to flood Twitter with my cricket updates. Soon he reached his 50 off just 37 balls and by that time he had made intentions very clear, that of getting a 100. I was still grumbling a little because Cricinfo was acting a little cuckoo and I was taking out my frustration on Twitter by abusing the hell out of Cricinfo. Meanwhile he was really starting to smash the balls to all parts of the ground and you know Sachin is set for a big one when he starts jumping out to spinners and also connects with his glorious inside-out shots over extra-cover.

Soon no.46 was achieved and that was in just 90 balls(a little slow in comparison to his first 50) and thereafter Sachin decided to, like Ravi Shastri loves to shout while on air,”Up the ante”. 1 big shot was being hit almost every over with singles being taken with considerable ease. By the time Dinesh Kartik got out for a well made 79, Sachin had raced to 124(104) and it was just the 34th over. I tilted my head in the now-famous JD like pose(JD from scrubs, overkill of Scrubs I suppose) to day-dream. 16 more overs, 76 more runs, first double-hundred, that moron Saeed Anwar’s record being broken, such thoughts were crowding my mind. I tweeted saying, “If Sachin keeps his head, he can definitely get a 200 this time, one of the records I badly want him to own..”, thats it and people had already started labeling me a jinxer(actually Kartik got out right after this tweet, so I did agree with them to a certain extent, but what the hell..) Then Yusuf the mad Pathan came in and Sachin, like an Oracle decided to take the batting powerplay. That was a very crucial moment, because lot of teams opt for the powerplay and in making quick runs lose wickets and lose momentum totally. However nothing of that sort happened as Sachin and Yusuf went hammer and tongs and the batting powerplay yielded 63 runs. Sachin had reached 150 and it was still only the 38th over.

Sometimes, you see things visualizing in front of your eyes, things that you would generally want to happen, but they don’t really happen. I had this strong hunch, that Sachin would break perhaps the only record in ODIs that he now wanted, that of the highest individual score. That is when I decided, that enough is enough. I can’t just sit like this and follow cricket on the internet when I could very well go down to the cafeteria and watch history in the making. So off I went(with the my heart heavily filled with guilt that I was bunking work for some fleeting batting record). But lo-behold, there were at least 50 people already present in the cafeteria who had chosen to do same thing. As I sat down, Sachin took on Van der Merwe, tonking him over long-off. The shot initially drew a frantic scream(I thought perhaps he had mishit that one) but it comfortably sailed over the ropes. A four of Kallis and couple of 4s off Parnell and he had moved into 190s( I forgot to mention that the cafeteria had gone absolutely berserk when Sachin crossed his personal best of 186).

Well now that he had moved into the 190s, discussions started as to what the highest individual score was. A lot of numbers were thrown, varying from 192-210, with people vigorously supporting their claims with dates and locations of the match. However Neo Cricket perhaps anticipating the commotion, decided to lay to rest the confusion and flashed a table of highest individual scores. Saeed Anwar was right up there(who can forget that painful 194 at Chennai) but people had really not expected to see a Zimbabwe player in first place. Charles Coventry had smashed an identical 194 against a hapless Bangaldeshi attack in 2009, which not a lot of people had bothered to remember. Well now with the mystery solved, people got back to the match and waited with bated breath to absorb a slice of history about to be created.

Sachin had started to tire out and decided to only take singles. Well, at the other end was Dhoni. While he was dealing in singles, Dhoni was dealing in 6s and 4s. Dhoni’s batting style is unique, for he whacks the balls with speeds that would generally kill human beings when struck by them. Dhoni seemed to be enjoying the carnage and kept hitting balls out of the park. People were beginning to get a little restless, for Sachin had been deprived of strike and since he was only taking 1s and 2s, his stay in the 190s was beginning to look increasingly labored. Soon with a couple, Sachin crossed 194 to reach 195. Not too many emotions and 1 mission had been achieved. Cafeteria was filled with raucous claps and blabbering with few people opting to shout “Pakistan Murdabad..”, well not really connected to the context, but what the hell, Sachin has just reached the highest individual score.

Dhoni continued to smash 6s with ridiculous ease and from 4 overs it was suddenly down to only 2 overs and Sachin was still on 199. The 49th over looked something like this with Dhoni being on strike: 0,6,0,6,4,1. “1″, how could he take the fucking single with Sachin stranded at 199. All the Dhoni-haters were screaming their heads off, “Yeh Dhoni saala chor hai. Saala Sachin se jalta hai” were some of the saner responses. 50th over started and Dhoni smashed another 6. Never had I heard people vehemently abusing an Indian batsman for smashing a 6, and I swear to God, if Dhoni had not taken the single of the next ball, people could have smashed the tv-set, such was the tension. Dhoni had actually smashed the 2nd delivery, a full toss, to wide of square leg. But Hashim Amla running around made a vital stop and Dhoni agreed to take only a single(People are now suggesting that Amla would now be felicitated with Padma Bhusan for allowing Sachin to come on strike:D). Finally Sachin was on strike and he had 3 balls to achieve one of the most difficult of batting records. With beads of tension dripping across my face, I watched as the disfigured Langeveldt(His eye looked as if it had been stung by not 1 but a group of monstrous bees) delivered a wide, fullish ball outside off stump. Sachin guided it towards point and in that one moment, everything ceased to move. Single was completed and the crowds erupted.

Never have I experienced such a surge of emotions, inexplicable and irrational. I was proud of the fact that he had reached that land-mark, something only he could have reached(Ponting lovers can go fuck themselves). People were clapping away, hugging each other as if India had already won the match. Such was the Euphoria, that even after Dhoni had blazed 2 more 4s to take the score past 400, nobody was really talking about it. People were still in a daze, that their favorite son of India had reached his ODI batting zenith, a peak from where he can never fall, a PEAK which no one in the near future can scale. It was the 90s all over, when Sachin used to make the country come to a complete stand-still and today he had turned the clock back beautifully.

Let me first discuss, the race to the title and then I shall throw some light on who could actually win the coveted 4th spot which earns the teams a chance to qualify for the prestigious UEFA Champions League.

Race to the Title :
The top 3 have all played equal number of matches i.e, 26 and have 12 more to go. Let us take a look at Chelsea’s fixtures:

Going by the fixtures, they have 2 tough ones(in Red) against Man Utd and Liverpool, though they would fancy Liverpool with the glut the team is in at the moment. Also they have to play Man City, Aston Villa and Tottenham (the 3 fixtures in green) which look much trickier than the league standings suggest. Out of the 12 matches, 5 matches present the highest likelihood of Chelsea dropping points, which gives them a probability of 0.416 of dropping points.

Now let us take a look at Man Utd’s fixtures:

They, just like Chelsea, have to play Chelsea and Liverpool apart from playing against Man City and Tottenham. So that gives them a probability of 0.33 of dropping points, which is lower than Chelsea’s, however they are also behind by a point.

Taking a look at Arsenal’s fixtures:

Arsenal, having played “The Big 3″ in succession(Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool) have a relatively simpler set of fixtures, where the only tricky matches are the ones against Tottenham(what a derby would that be, taking into consideration that the League would be at its business end and things would be very, very tense) and Man City. They have a probability of 0.167 of dropping points which looks really healthy and should motivate them to go on a big winning streak, if they are to harbor any hopes of winning their first league title since 2005. However, Probability is a very fickle stat, as the players playing Poker would generally agree(Just when you think you have won on a Straight, out comes a Flush. Calculating odds at that stage would be very stupid). Just to get a vague idea of all this analysis, let us assume that all the matches where a team could drop points, end in a draw and the rest of matches end in a win.

Chelsea would have 5 + 7*3 + 58(Current) = 84 points
Man Utd would have 4 + 8*3 + 57(Current) = 85 points
Arsenal would have 2 + 10*3 + 52(Current) = 84 points

This is exactly how close the Premier League is this season (although my analysis is totally random and might not yield the true picture). But it would take a really brave man, unless he is an ardent supporter of either of the above-mentioned 3, to really predict who will succeed in the end. And this augurs well for us, the football lovers, for we have some really cracking matches in store.

Battle for the 4th:

This is even tougher to predict, although Rafael Benitez happens to think otherwise, as not all the 4 teams locked in the battle, have played the same number of games. Also all 4 have been way inconsistent to help us in our predictions. So Let us take a look at them one by one.

Liverpool:

Liverpool still have to play Manchester United and Chelsea, with the one against Chelsea being in the penultimate week which only increases the pressure riding on that match. Other than the Big 2, their only difficult match is against Man City and so they have a probability of 0.25 of dropping points, which is not really bad. In fact if Liverpool do keep their heads and play like we all know they can, they might just end up proving their gaffer right.

Manchester City:

For a club which has had an injection of funds, pretty much akin to what Chelsea went through when that oil baron, Roman Abromovich came along, finishing anything less than 4th would be blasphemy. The inconsistent results have already led to the sacking of one coach(Mark Hughes) and the other one(Roberto Mancini) isn’t doing really great either. Add to the fact that Man City still have to play all the 6 teams in top 7 and Mancini would do well to get hold of sleeping pills, for the tough set of fixtures would definitely keep him awake till it all ends. As I said, 6 matches where the likelihood of dropping points is highest, and that gives them a probability of 0.428, which is the highest so far.

Aston Villa:

Just like last season, Aston Villa seemed to have hit a rough patch, where they have scored just 3 times in 7 matches, drawn 3, lost 3 and won 1. However, hopefully, Martin O’Neill’s team would have learnt their lessons from last season, where they imploded towards the end after having started wonderfully and limped to a thoroughly undeserving 6th position. The remaining fixtures are considerably easy, as they only have to play Chelsea and Man City among the tough ones. This gives them a probability of 0.153 of dropping points, the lowest among Top 7 teams. This augurs well for this hard-working team and I really hope they finish higher than they did last season.

Tottenham Hotspur:

Tottenham Hotspur have always been an enigmatic team, a tad inconsistent at times with the propensity of choking in important matches(analogous to South Africa in cricket). However under the shrewd Harry Redknapp, they have played an attacking brand of football which has been a delight to watch when it has come off, but equally drab and dull when going downhill. The remaining fixtures couldn’t have been anymore unkind, what with they having to play the Top 3(Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal) in succession right towards the end. With the possibility of dropping points high in these matches, since this team generally doesn’t turn up for big matches(previously in this season, they were pummeled 3-0,3-0,3-1 respectively in their matches against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd), it is only imperative that they gain as many points as possible from the remaining fixtures. They have a probability of 0.33 of dropping points, which is same as what Chelsea have.

Now doing the same analysis which was carried out for the top 3:

Liverpool would have 3 + 9*3 + 44(Current) = 74 Points
Man City would have 6 + 8*3 + 44(Current) = 74 Points
Aston Villa would have 2 + 11*3 + 42(Current) = 77 Points
Tot Spur would have 4 + 8*3 + 43(Current) = 71 Points

Thus we see that the battle for the last Champions League Qualifying spot is equally close and one good or bad day can ruin an entire season’s worth effort.

The analysis that I have done here, might not ultimately turn out to be true, but it does give me, a football freak, some satisfaction, that the analysis in a way depicts just how close the Premier League has been this season. We have had some stellar matches, and some really controversial moments. But all this only add a sense of enigma, an excitement, which no other sport on this earth manages to provide.